Expectations at Dubai Airshow 2023 run high as the international show circuit resumes normal service after three years of upheaval. Event planners aim to present a desert future-fest to outshine previous proceedings and “put the UAE at the forefront of aviation.”
However, the wider context of the extreme security crisis around Israel's conflict with Hamas looms large over this week's show given the all-too-real potential for the conflict to spark a wider regional conflagration. The circumstances will undoubtedly be part of the chatter between defense exhibitors and their customers and partners. One cannot overlook the prospect of war undermining post-Covid economic recovery of the air transport sector either.
Gulf airline order books are a perennial focus of the event, and although backlogs and delays at the main airframers have bedeviled the region's wide-body fleet renewal, hopes will be high for the show to stage some big-ticket deals.
Traditionally, except for a few stand-out marquee orders, the activity from previous Dubai Airshows falls somewhat short of the Paris events that precede them, said IBA chief economist Stuart Hatcher.
“It is no secret that [Emirates Airline president] Tim Clark has been suggesting that Emirates will be placing a large order very soon,” he said. “By my reckoning, they need another 150 or so A350s and 787s to add to the 195 777X/A350/787s already on backlog if they want to factor in growth.”
Emirates announced a record half-year profit on Thursday of $2.7 billion, up 138 percent on the same period last year, driven by strong demand for international travel. Revenue increased 20 percent to $18.3 billion.
Hatcher sees Turkish Airlines as a possible standout for event orders. “Quite frankly, there shouldn’t be any technical barrier for them to place a substantial order at the Dubai show,” he said. “Their goal appears to exceed 800 aircraft by 2033, approximately 500 narrowbodies, 270 widebodies, and 50 freighters. Whilst some will come from lessors, a sizeable chunk needs to be ordered now to meet the targets towards the end of the decade.”
If Hatcher is correct, 2023 could match the bumper orders that surfaced in 2013. “If I assume most of the best bets come in, then we could easily get to 500—assuming Turkish Airlines comes in with something sizeable,” he said. “If madness continues to spread, that number could grow beyond 700.”
The steady but inexorable growth of Al Maktoum International Airport (OMDW) will soon leap ahead with the arrival of additional runways and terminal infrastructure to support commercial expansion. MRO is another area where OMDW wants to expand dramatically.
Dubai's Civil Aviation Authority expects to publish the world’s first national regulations related to vertiports as the emirate pledges to launch flying taxis by 2026.
The airshow will see the aerospace, space, and defense industries come together for a comprehensive conference agenda featuring nine thought-leadership streams across five days.
Global leaders confirmed to speak during the conferences include Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports; Mohammed Al Kuwaiti, chairman of the UAE Cyber Security Council; Tony Douglas, CEO of Riyadh Air; and Julie Marks, acting executive director for the FAA’s Office of Environment and Energy.
London-based Boeing incubator Aerospace Xelerated plans to make a major announcement during the airshow, as it moves to select new software startups to drive aerospace forward.