Production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2023 doubled to 600 million liters versus last year, but it accounted for just 3 percent of the overall output of renewable fuel worldwide, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported Friday. The group also projected that the production of SAF will triple next year to 1.875 billion liters, accounting for only 0.53 percent of aviation’s fuel needs and 6 percent of all renewable fuel capacity. IATA attributes the small percentage of SAF output to the allocation of other renewable fuels coming online this year.
“This allocation limits SAF supply and keeps prices high,” said IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “Aviation needs between 25 percent and 30 percent of renewable fuel production capacity for SAF. At those levels, aviation will be on the trajectory needed to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Until such levels are reached, we will continue missing huge opportunities to advance aviation’s decarbonization. It is government policy that will make the difference. Governments must prioritize policies to incentivize the scaling-up of SAF production and to diversify feedstocks with those available locally.”
The Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed on a global framework to promote a level of SAF used in international aviation to result in 5 percent less carbon intensity by 2030. Refiners will need to produce about 17.5 billion liters of SAF to reach that goal.
“Governments want aviation to be net-zero by 2050,” added Walsh. “Having set an interim target in the CAAF process, they now need to deliver policy measures that can achieve the needed exponential increase in SAF production.”
IATA attributes the relatively low level of uptake to supply rather than lack of demand. Operators have bought and used “every drop” of SAF produced, noted IATA. In fact, SAF added $756 million to a record-high fuel bill in 2023.
IATA has called on governments to set a policy framework that incentivizes renewable fuel producers to allocate 25 to 30 percent of their output to SAF to meet the CAAF/3 ambition, existing regional and national policies, and airline commitments.
Effective production incentives for SAF should support objectives such as accelerating investment by traditional oil companies, ensuring that government incentives result in sufficient SAF quantities, encouraging regional diversification of feedstocks, identifying and prioritizing “high-potential” production projects for investment support, and delivering a global SAF accounting framework.
According to IATA, 85 percent of SAF facilities coming online over the next five years will use hydrotreatment (HEFA) production technology, which relies on inedible animal fats, used cooking oil, and industrial grease as feedstock. Limited quantities of such sources require policies to diversify and increase SAF production through pathways already certified, in particular the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), both of which use bio/agricultural wastes and residue.