Confirmation this week that the Ukrainian government has initiated talks with EASA and the FAA over a possible reopening of its airspace to international air traffic has raised questions in the industry as to how this could be achieved safely while intense combat continues with invading Russian forces. Ukraine deputy prime minister Oleksandr Kubrakov told media outlets that, while no timeline for the restoration of civil flights can be confirmed, the government has “conveyed its vision to the regulators on how the market will operate under the conditions of martial law, its risk assessments, approaches, and algorithms.”
Ukrainian officials have held talks with their counterparts at Israel’s Civil Aviation Authority, seeking guidance as to how airspace could be opened up during an ongoing conflict. There has been no public confirmation as to which of the country’s airports might be reopened, but Kubrakov indicated that several Ukrainian airlines, as well as European carriers such as Ryanair, have expressed interest in resuming scheduled services.
Aviation security expert Eric Schouten with risk management and intelligence group Dyami urged caution in plans for reopening airspace in Ukraine. However, he told AIN that any resumption of flights could potentially begin with cargo and business aviation operations, rather than airline services.
According to Dyami, the most probable airports from which to start any reopening of airspace would be Kyiv Boryspil International and Lviv Danylo Halytskyi. While both locations are some distance from the main Eastern front in the conflict, the European company indicated that both airports still face significant dangers from Russian threats. Lviv has the advantage of being very close to Ukraine’s Western border with ally Poland, while Kyiv has stronger air defense systems.
According to Schouten, Ukraine’s apparent plan to base its reopening of airspace on the Israeli model is seriously flawed. He pointed out that Russian forces have much stronger offensive capability than Hamas and that the Israel Defense Force has far greater experience in operating sophisticated air defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, and also has established processes for working with civilian aviation. In his view, significant training and preparation would need to be completed before any resumption of flights.
Schouten urged operators that might be considering plans to fly into or over Ukraine to conduct a thorough risk assessment after making arrangements with insurance underwriters. “Many companies do not have a proper risk department, and it is surprising they are unwilling to make this investment when you consider all the threats in the world,” he concluded.
A spokesman for Universal Weather & Aviation told AIN the flight support group’s planning team has not had any official notification about moves to reopen Ukrainian airspace. He said the company does not expect to be facilitating flights there for the foreseeable future since the country is still an active war zone, even if airline service were to resume. “Most likely we would continue to treat the region like we do Iraq/Iran—just too dangerous,” he said.