Aircraft operators face an array of potentially hazardous decisions when planning flights around the Middle East region as military conflict continues to escalate between Israel and Iran-backed forces in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. In a presentation to customers this week, security consultants Osprey Flight Solutions advised extreme caution with risks to aircraft now also extending across Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
According to Matthew Borie, Osprey’s chief intelligence officer, operators need to be especially careful in their risk management in the face of conflicting advisories from various regulators. On September 28, EASA issued conflict zone information bulletins advising against using the Tel Aviv and Beirut flight information zones at all altitudes. Nonetheless, airports in both cities remain open for now.
Osprey’s briefing warned that dangers increased when Iran started a wave of ballistic missile attacks on Israel, which in some cases overwhelmed the country’s air defense system. These missiles passed through the airspace in Iraq, Jordan, and Syria, but Borie pointed out that authorities there, and in other neighboring countries, did not issue notams covering the associated risks.
“Operators need to be clear on their ability to safely land and takeoff from Beirut,” Borie cautioned, advising his clients to engage with all possible information resources including ICAO and their own regulators to ensure their flight plans do not conflict with the rapidly changing action being taken by the Israel Defense Forces. He pointed out that Israeli missile strikes have hit targets as close as three kilometers from the Lebanese capital’s Rafic Hariri International Airport.
Among particular concerns are the use of all-altitude air defense systems and weapons by forces across the region, including over the Red Sea. Osprey also warned of ongoing risks to aircrew from GPS/GNSS interference via jamming and spoofing tactics.
Borie pointed out that official guidance from international regulators has been inconsistent in terms of the published altitude ceilings for risk, with variations between flight levels 250 and 320, which potentially gives false reassurance over the threat of all-altitude weapons. Pointing to particular risks from missiles launched from Iraq, Osprey cautioned against nighttime flights through this airspace.
Osprey advised operators to use both automated and manual methods to reconcile the safety of planned flights with regulators’ notices, assessing both regulatory and financial risks. The company provides intelligence through its Osprey Sentinel and Atlas platforms.
Assessing the potential for the conflict to escalate further and widen in scope, Osprey acknowledged the possible dangers resulting from direct attacks by Israel on targets in Iran, including oil production facilities. Direct involvement by U.S. and other allied forces could also increase dangers and extend risk into the Gulf states, Borie told AIN.