Houthi Escalation of Iran War Widens Danger to Aviation

Security experts have warned that a new wave of attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces poses significantly increased risks to aviation in airspace spanning Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Additionally, if the Yemen-based fighters close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, this could further curtail the flow of jet fuel and other oil and gas products already disrupted by the almost-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Over the past week, international airports in Kuwait City and the Iraqi capital Baghdad have been damaged by Iranian missiles and drones. The unpredictable and dispersed pattern of attacks is prompting the airlines to resort to longer routings and last-minute changes to flight plans as they struggle to sustain increasingly costly operations, several security analysts have cautioned in briefings this week.

According to Dyami Security Intelligence, the increased risk to flights from Houthi military action is currently focused on the airspace immediately adjacent to Yemen, where these forces are based. The company sees potential for the conflict area to widen and warned on Tuesday that Houthi involvement in the conflict represents what it described as “the most dangerous course of action.” It is advising clients to expect a sustained war of attrition with multiple flight information regions at risk from missiles and drones.

“At this point, it is not really the case that airspace is either open or closed; it’s a patchwork in which contingency procedures are continuing,” Hany Bakr, senior v-p for aviation and maritime security with MedAire, told attendees during a briefing on Tuesday organized by MedAire parent company International SOS. “Air carriers are increasingly being funneled through preapproved corridors that can change very quickly just before flights or even mid-flight.”

The result is increased airspace congestion in which air traffic controllers have to maintain separations between aircraft. “There are fewer airways open and so more holding for aircraft, plus longer routings, more complex deconfliction of civil aircraft, and more fuel burn,” Bakr explained.

According to Medaire, flight detours of between one and three hours are now standard on routes in and around the Gulf. Operators are also coping with increased disruption to GNSS signals and intentional spoofing efforts to draw aircraft off track.

“Carriers are ramping up operations with reroutings, and at the same time, passenger flows are shifting as alternative [airport] hubs are being used,” Bakr explained. “This is not a uniform shutdown. It is a high-risk, uneven environment that requires constant reassessment, and flight planning must remain conservative.”

Expect Conflict Escalation

Polina Vynogradova, lead security analyst with International SOS, said during the briefing that she expects the conflict to continue and possibly escalate. In her view, a ceasefire around the terms proposed by U.S. President Trump is “unlikely in the short term due to the long history of failed negotiations and mistrust.”

Meanwhile, aircraft operators in markets such as Europe and Asia are facing the prospect of jet fuel shortages and rising costs. “The impact would hit regional carriers first with flight reductions and higher fares, then ripple globally via elevated spot [oil] prices, mitigated somewhat by stockpiles and rerouting, but escalation would worsen the situation,” International SOS told AIN in a written response.

In a security briefing on Wednesday, Osprey Flight Solutions chief intelligence officer Matthew Borie—a former U.S. Air Force operations intelligence craftsman—warned of potential dangers from Houthi forces increasing the potential for its Iranian allies to threaten more military air bases. He said that so far, attacks on civil airports have been relatively small-scale, but cautioned that more pressure on aircraft operations should be expected.

According to Osprey’s analysts, Iran likely has sufficient medium- and short-range munitions to sustain the current rate of attacks for at least 90 days. At the same time, stocks of interceptor missiles held by the frontline Gulf states have been diminishing, as has their success rate in blocking incoming attacks.

In Borie’s view, the lack of clarity as to how Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz might get resolved raises concerns over further military escalation. Osprey is advising clients to risk-assess every flight, formulate plans for dealing with GPS navigation interference, evaluate rerouting options, and put in place contingency measures for crew and passengers.

Osprey will hold its second World Overflight Risk Conference in Malta from April 20 to 22. This will feature discussions between leaders from airlines, insurers, regulators, intelligence experts, and technology specialists.