Embraer Trims 20-Year Small Jet Forecast

In its annual Market Outlook, Brazil-based Embraer forecasts demand for some 8,500 sub-150-seat commercial jets over the next two decades. According to Embraer Commercial Aviation president and CEO Arjan Meijer, a shift in consumer preferences—particularly regarding tourism—is driving greater need for airline connectivity served by aircraft of this size.

Between now and 2045, China will lead the annual rate of expansion, with revenue passenger kilometer growth of 5.2%, while Europe and North America trail at 2.7% and 2%, respectively. Even so, North America will take the largest share of deliveries at 31%, or about 2,670 aircraft. Europe follows at 22%, then China at 17%. By 2045, Embraer expects China to have up to 1,520 sub-150-seat jets in service, up from 490 today.

This year’s figure of 8,500 jets marks a slight softening from Embraer’s earlier 8,720-airframe estimate, though the regional split of expected deliveries is largely unchanged. Airlines must now “deliver better connectivity across a broader, more diverse network of operations,” Meijer said, and a "mixed-fleet strategy is essential to match capacity with new and emerging passenger travel flows."