The International Bureau of Aviation (IBA) predicts the global business jet fleet will grow by almost 60 percent between now and 2025, rising from 19,700 to 30,750 aircraft.
A more striking conclusion from its just-published “Business Jet Asset Report 2013” is that it expects very light jets to show the most impressive growth rate, with this category of aircraft projected to increase almost three-fold, from 1,014 to 4,010 aircraft. By comparison, the UK-based consultancy forecasts that over the same period the ranks of heavy jets will grow by 89 percent (to 3,251 in 2025) and large/ultra-long-range models by 69 percent to 5,050. The projected fleet growth rate for super-midsize types is pegged at 53 percent (3,011 aircraft), followed by midsize jets at 42 percent (7,201) and light jets at 19 percent (8,228).
The IBA expects fleet expansions involving light and midsize jets to be “conservative,” as deliveries for both will be offset due to such factors as Stage II-forced retirements. The company is more optimistic about larger business jets, anticipating that the addition of follow-on upgrades will outpace nominal numbers of retirement and attrition.
As to values, the IBA report points out that “a well supported product such as a 2008 Challenger 300 is still worth around 61 percent of its new value, whereas a 2008 Hawker 4000 is probably worth only around 28 percent of its original value.”