The Chinese business jet and helicopter markets have cooled due to a slowing economy and a government-backed austerity campaign that stemmed from a crackdown on corruption, according to Honeywell Aerospace’s latest forecasts. While the company sees some near-term “glimmer” for business jet deliveries in China, purchase plans in the medium-term are expected to be below historical levels. In the helicopter sector, the outlook is more grim.
The company surveys operators to help develop its forecasts, and it received more than 1,500 completed responses for its 24th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, which was released in late November. Overall, it projects deliveries of 9,200 new business jets worth $270 billion between last year and 2025. Honeywell does not include VIP versions of airliners or very light jets in its business jet forecast.
Based on the survey results, Asia-Pacific will account for just 3 percent of the world’s new business jet demand over the survey horizon, with much of that driven by China. North America remains the pre-eminent region in terms of projected demand, accounting for 61 percent of world new jet sales, followed by Latin America (18 percent), Europe (14 percent) and the Middle East (3 percent).
Despite a lower projected GDP growth, the Chinese business jet market saw slight improvements in its new jet purchase plans from the forecast release in late 2014. “I was actually a little surprised to see the China buying plans go up given the current political and economic environment,” Charles Park, Honeywell Aerospace’s director of strategic marketing, told AIN. “Though it’s well below historical levels that we’ve captured in this survey, it’s encouraging to see that it’s starting to creep back up a little bit.”
Helicopter Outlook
Honeywell is taking a more cautious tone in its latest turbine-powered civil helicopter purchase outlook, which was released in February and calls for 4,300 to 4,800 civil helicopters to be delivered from this year to 2020. This is some 400 helicopters fewer than in the company’s previous five-year forecast released 12 months ago, thanks to slower global economic growth and increased volatility in oil-and-gas-related markets.
While the helicopter forecast showed new purchase-plan rates were stable, operators cited fewer total new model purchases over the five-year period. By cabin size, light turbines are expected to account for 54 percent of deliveries over the forecast period; light twins, 11 percent; medium twins, 28 percent; and heavy, 7 percent.
Looking at world regions, 16 percent of the Asia Pacific operators surveyed said they planned on buying a new helicopter during the next five years; that’s down four percentage points from last year’s survey. This is due to a gloomier outlook in China, where the economy is slowing and an anti-luxury backlash has emerged.
Some Progress
According to Honeywell, some progress is being made in the long-running efforts to make operating conditions more favorable in China. “Regulations are continuously being revised by the government to support the growth of the business aviation industry in China,” commented Andy Gill, the company’s senior director for business and general aviation in the Asia Pacific region. “The Chinese government is working on opening up low altitude airspace, which could give general aviation in the country a significant boost from 2018 onwards.”
Honeywell claims that its SmartPath ground-based augmentation system could further improve the efficiency of China’s air transport system. Later this year, the product is expected to be certified in China, following installation and testing in April 2015 at Shanghai’s Pudong International Airport.
The U.S.-based group’s contribution to business aircraft is very comprehensive, running from engines (such as the latest HTF-7000 turbofan), to cockpit suites, and with the latest Ovation Select cabin management and connectivity systems in between. Its cockpit technology includes the SmartView systems selected for Gulfstream’s new G500 and G600 jets, as well as for Dassault’s Falcon 5X. The latest Primus Elite avionics features in the Embraer Legacy 650.
The new IntuVue weather radar, which is mainly used on airliners, is standard equipment on the Gulfstream G650, and Honeywell is looking to expand its adoption in business aircraft. The new radar in intended to increase a pilot’s situational awareness by scanning up to 593 kilometers (320 nautical miles) ahead of the aircraft from the ground up to 18,290 meters (60,000 feet) and 160 degrees around the aircraft.
As part of its effort to boost productivity for business aircraft users, Honeywell (Booth P122) offers its GX Aviation inflight Wi-Fi solutions. This is based on the JetWave hardware, which was recently certified by Transport Canada to be installed on Bombardier’s business jets.
Honeywell’s product support network for the Asia Pacific region supports a fleet of more than 850 business aircraft. To do this, it has the backing of 43 partners, including Hawker Pacific, Gulfstream Beijing, Metrojet and Vibratech.