Changes Coming to Capitol Hill, but Same Issues Will Loom

The November elections are expected to bring some notable changes to the U.S. Congress with the control of the Senate possibly up for grabs and some key lawmakers at risk of losing their seats. But many lawmakers familiar to aviation circles are expected to return, and along with them, most of the same issues, including FAA reauthorization and air traffic control reform.

Many political insiders believe the Senate is the chamber to watch with 24 of 34 seats up for election currently held by Republicans. The numbers alone increase the possibility for a shift in control; Democrats would need to capture an additional four to five seats to win control, depending on the outcome of the presidential race.

A shift in power would alter the committee structures, including a change in the numbers of members from both parties on the committees, as well as a swap in chairmanships.

This means that Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), who is currently the ranking Democrat on the Senate Commerce Committee, would be in line to become chairman should the Democrats take control. The current chairman, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D), who is running for re-election, would then become the ranking Republican, should he win his race as expected.

Practically speaking, such a change might have little effect for aviation policy, aviation lobbyists say. Nelson and Thune are widely credited with working in a bipartisan fashion on many of the issues, including air traffic control reform. Nelson has taken a harder line opposing such reform. Thune has remained open to the concept, but has been unwilling to push forward a proposal that he believed had little chance of survival.

Nelson also has pushed more on the consumer advocacy front, and a Democratic control could raise the visibility of the effort to increase the passenger facility charge (PFC). But as with ATC reform, the effort to raise the PFC has been ongoing for a number of years with little avail. Nelson has had concerns about reforms with the third-class medical but worked with backers to alleviate concerns and allowed a bill to progress.

Working closely with Nelson and Thune on these issues has been the aviation subcommittee leadership, including chairman Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) and ranking Democrat Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.).

Like Thune, Ayotte is running for re-election this year. But while Thune is considered “safe” by election prognosticators, Ayotte does not enjoy the same degree of certainty. Various polls have shown Ayotte both leading and trailing the Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan. Aviation groups have credited Ayotte with supporting a number of their efforts, including certification reform.

“She understands the importance of general aviation not only in New Hampshire but its impact across the country. She is a very strong proponent in moving general aviation issues in the Senate,” said James Coon, senior v-p of government affairs and advocacy for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association. “We’re really watching that one closely.”

Another seat that is being scrutinized is Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), a pilot who has teamed with Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) to push through an extension of bonus depreciation. Polls have had him narrowly trailing Democratic candidate Katie McGinty, a 2014 gubernatorial candidate who had been an environmental advisor in the Clinton Administration.

Downstream Effects

The races of Ayotte and Toomey are being widely watched not only from aviation circles, but also from a national level, with pundits questioning whether they will lose votes from the Presidential election. Political experts are questioning whether this year’s race may translate in traditional Republican votes swinging Democrat, or keep some Republicans home altogether.

“Political pundits consider the 2016 Presidential election one of the most unpredictable ever and House and Senate members are taking the possible down ticket implications very seriously,” said Bill Deere, executive v-p of government and external affairs for the National Air Transportation Association. “While control of the Senate in particular is certainly in play, I think the discussion about wrapping up work on a bill to fund the government into early December and then adjourning is indicative of the fact all members want to return to their states and districts [to campaign] as soon as possible.”

While it is possible the House leadership could change, it is more likely the Senate leadership will flip. But the margin between Democrats and Republicans in the House is expected to narrow from the most recent breakdown of 246 Republicans to 186 Democrats (with three vacancies). As with the Senate, few think a change in the balance of power would bring much change in the debate on key aviation issues. But such a shift could result in a more difficult path for House Transportation and Infrastructure chairman Bill Shuster (R-Pa.) to push forward on his proposal to create a user-funded, independent not-for-profit organization to run air traffic control. House Democrats have been strong opponents of the effort.

Shuster, while considered safe in his bid for re-election at this point, has the unusual circumstance of facing the same opponent he ran against in the primary. The lawmaker squeaked by Tea Party candidate Art Halvorson with a 1,200-vote margin out of 97,500 cast. But Halvorson had enough write-in votes in the Democrat primary that cleared a path for him to run as a Democrat. Few believe the switch in party will enable him to capture the seat.

The general aviation associations are also keeping a close eye on several House races. A couple of key advocates appear safe but with closer margins. These include Rick Nolan (D-Minn.), who has fought for Part 23 reform, among other issues, and General Aviation Caucus member Jeff Denham. The General Aviation Caucuses array has grown to a record 320 members in the House and Senate, providing strength on certain positions and assistance in educating other members on more controversial issues. This will provide a strong base of institutional knowledge about general aviation, easing the education effort that usually takes place after every election.

But the caucuses will certainly suffer casualties, with as many as 20 members either retiring or running for other offices. This number does not include losses resulting from potentially unsafe seats.

Regardless of the outcomes of the races, or the shift in power, aviation advocates stress that their issues tend to be less partisan and are more of an education effort. “We work with both sides,” said Coon. But, he added, “We’re watching as many [races] as we can.”

This education process will come as air traffic control reform takes center stage again in the new Congress. The FAA is set to once again face reauthorization at the end of next year. Airline CEOs have made clear plans to continue to fight, and view the new Congress as a fresh opportunity to make their case for an independent organization funded by user fees to run the nation’s air traffic control system. They hope to bring as many of their “hundreds of millions” of passengers along for the fight. “We absolutely are not giving up on this,” said JetBlue Airways CEO Robin Hayes. “We will continue to work very hard to get the message across to our elected leaders.”