Predicting the future of aircraft avionics and electrical systems is a daunting and challenging proposition. It’s probably like the question Charles Babbage was asked when he invented the first “calculating engine,” which would become the basis for today’s computers—“What will that do for us?” It is reasonable to assume no one accurately predicted what would happen between 1871 when Babbage died and the world of computing as it is today. However, you can look back at the trail from Babbage’s first calculating engine to now and connect the dots to reconstruct how technology arrived at the iPhone.
You could also look at the development of aviation technology as having three fundamental drivers, from which all other goals derive: safety, performance, and a business case.
The first magnetic compass was installed in an aircraft to increase safety and improve operational performance. The business case for a profitable navigation system wasn’t truly established until the directional gyro was invented by Lawrence Sperry before World War I and tested for “blind flying” by Jimmy Doolittle in 1929. Using that basis for the past and future, we know that performance and safety were the prime drivers of avionics, followed by a business case which, ironically, is exactly how it should be.
It’s hard to argue that the industry does not view improving safety as an emphasis for the future. However, developing more advanced avionics will be primarily focused on increasing performance; with safety as a subline. One example is the automatic dependent surveillance‐broadcast (ADS‐B) mandate. While ADS‐B certainly contributes to improving safety, the real impact of the system is in enhancing operational performance by reducing the strain on the air traffic control system, allowing aircraft to operate on more efficient flight paths with fewer interrupted climbs and descents. It also increases airspace capacity without compromising safety. There is a huge business case surrounding the increase in operational performance. It is doubtful that the mandate would have become a reality on safety merits alone.
If you compare airplanes to land-based vehicles, many of the systems parallel. Assured clear distance ahead (ACDA), developed for automobiles and locomotives, is very similar to the traffic alert and collision avoidance system (TCAS) used today in aircraft. Obstacle detection sensor (ODS) systems in automobiles and aviation’s Terrain Awareness and Warning Systems (TAWS) have the common focus of avoiding potential threats.
Using the parallels and basis of development as guidelines, one can make the following predictions for avionics system developments:
Autonomous Operations. Like it or not, most if not all future avionics systems will have a defined tie to autonomous operations. Autonomous aircraft systems rely on three basic elements: improved operational performance; safe operation; and the ability to make money. In fact, companies such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman have already built entire business programs around autonomous aircraft.
Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) now make up a huge component of any operationally effective military anywhere in the world. Northrop Grumman’s RQ‐4 Global Hawk program achieved 20 years of safe flight operations with a single RQ‐4 Global Hawk logging 20,000 flight hours as of Feb. 13, 2018.
The field of sensor or data fusion is one area that will have the greatest impact on autonomous operations. Essentially, sensor fusion is the melding of data from multiple system sensors to provide an accurate and complete status picture of the aircraft in any given environment. This will also require the advancement of real‐time “mapping” sensors such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and range focusing data recognition analytics.
Sensor fusion has come a long way in development for the military, but more integration needs to be done for commercial applications. Companies like Honeywell and Collins Aerospace are working diligently to further integrate sensor data with a certified command and control datalink system. Once complete, it is virtually assured that RTCA DO-362 will be modified to incorporate autonomously manned vehicles or a new standard will be written to include the technology.
Big aircraft producers such as Boeing are focusing resources on new developments like an autonomous taxi system. Boeing is also working on machine learning, which is another autonomous technology that melds with sensor fusion. According to Mike Sinnett, v-p of product development for Boeing, “We will have that algorithm on an airplane [in 2019] operating in an unclosed loop environment, just understanding the decision that the machine made and what that decision would have led to on the actual airplane.”
Even with increased sensor fusion, the evolution of avionics must no doubt include some sort of frequency intercept detection. The position of an aircraft will interface with a “carpet” of standing frequency waves, and each time the aircraft “breaks” an intercept point, absolute and true position will be detected to within millimeters per millisecond. Combined with other sensors such as GPS, true position data will be free of latent errors.
Motion Planning. Right now, most aircraft avionics systems are built around technology that provides data to the crew for adjustment or correction. Future avionics systems will rely heavily on software that can provide motion planning and trajectory prediction data. Using the automotive comparison of automatic emergency braking now installed in cars, avionics systems of the future will rely heavily on predictive analysis integrated with sensor fusion. This allows systems to recognize events in real‐time and make routine, non‐routine, and emergency flight corrections. In fact, the tactical control system developed by Raytheon relies on protocols that integrate the “family‐of‐systems” architecture, which allows for less reliance on the human element.
Virtual Environment. Obviously, the need for autonomous operations with human oversight won’t be fully effective unless the aircraft environment can be correctly simulated in real time to the human interface. A new technology that will evolve to aviation is simultaneous localization and mapping or SLAM. Essentially, the concept of SLAM is the instantaneous translation of data from the real world, via sensors into the virtual world for processing actions and interface. In fact, the technology is already used in Tesla’s Autopilot, which processes the data to avoid collisions.
Another area of avionics where SLAM will be integrated is in aircraft flight simulation. Flight simulator companies are being forced to add virtual reality (VR) technology to simulated training that parallels the advances in avionics system technology. Physical peripherals combined with VR data will shape pilot training of the future.
Electrical Power Generation. As automation increases, so does the demand for electrical power. Eventually, there is a line of convergence where the cost of added weight and engine performance energy intersects with the benefits of electrically controlled systems. As most power-draining events are based on short-duration peak power moments, many companies worldwide are searching for ways to meet peak power energy demands without increasing weight or a degrading engine performance. There may even come a point when fuel cells combined with high‐energy‐capacity lithium‐ion batteries provide all of the supplemental power requirements of an aircraft and replace auxiliary power units. It is even quite possible that electrical systems will eventually replace all of the extremely heavy and complex bleed-air systems and hydraulic systems that control landing gear and flight controls on most current aircraft.
Computing and Security. Secure communications and increased computing capabilities are already driving warfighting efforts. Like most technologies that are developed for the military (radar as an example), it won’t be long until the technologies end up with a commercial application. Current on‐aircraft computing and connectivity systems are already getting long in the tooth from a development perspective. What has yet to evolve completely is the ability to transmit and receive the increasingly large amounts of data in a completely secure manner. What does this mean for avionics? It is quite plausible that as the threat of worldwide communication breeches expand, the threat of hacking an aircraft system evolves.
As cybersecurity threats increase, it is reasonable to predict that avionics and in‐flight entertainment systems of the future will deploy counter‐hacking technologies. In addition, it would be easy to connect avionics of the future with onboard servers equipped with firewalls and security protocols.
Avionics systems are increasingly dependent on computer servers. In fact, systems like the Honeywell Primus Epic suite are essentially a purpose-built server that integrates with the aircraft. The problem is that the increase in data requirements far exceeds the ability of aviation regulators and manufacturers to certify them before they are already obsolete. To meet the demands, regulators will be forced to develop “alternate means of compliance” to the testing and certifying requirements of software systems. To keep up with technology, regulators will have to implement clear lines of certification and minimalize the certification process. The future of avionics depends upon it.
Test Systems Need to Change
Consider that until the NextGen push, avionics shops primarily relied on a Barfield 1811 (or similar), a TKM Avionics NC‐2210, a sight compass, some breakout boxes, and possibly an IFR Aeroflex IFR‐4000. Now, the span of test equipment is growing, and so is the complexity. Equipment that can verify ADS‐B, such as the IFR Aeroflex IFR‐6000, is now a requirement, but that doesn’t address new standards like PCI eXtensions for Instrumentation (PXI), LAN eXtensions for Instrumentation (LXI), VME eXtensions for Instrumentation (VXI), or synthetic instrumentation. While these standards are being primarily used in the UAS world, it won’t be long before they become a universal architecture for advanced avionics.
Technicians and Engineers. Career-planning service provider Sokanu recently published a job study that gave the "Avionics Technician Employability Rating" an “F” due to the minimal job increases anticipated over the next 10 years. Sokanu estimates the job market will grow only 6.3 percent between 2016 and 2026.
But that doesn’t account for the technician shortage that followed the economic collapse of 2008, when technicians with key knowledge (sometimes called tribal knowledge) left the country, and sometimes the industry. This created a huge gap between educated and qualified technicians. It also doesn’t account for the fact that roughly 80 percent of the airframe and powerplant mechanic community as a whole is between 40 and 65 years old, with a large percentage over the next 20 years leaving the industry, according to the Professional Aviation Maintenance Association.
Boeing recently released its Pilot and Technician Outlook for 2017‐2036, and the news is alarming. It stated that “Between now and 2036, the aviation industry will need to supply more than 2 million new commercial airline pilots, maintenance technicians, and cabin crew." The Outlook projects that 637,000 new commercial airline pilots, 648,000 new maintenance technicians, and 839,000 new cabin crew will be needed to fly and maintain the world fleet over the next 20 years.
The cure, at least partially, is cooperative engagement between academia and industry to create teaching maintenance and repair organizations similar to the teaching hospital model. The concept is to bridge academic education with hands‐on learning in a controlled environment. This allows companies to employ qualified engineers and technicians without the burden and cost of training in a lean industry. The future of avionics will be dependent on a more collaborative and recognized system of bringing technicians and engineers into businesses.
The future of avionics is going to require the specialized skill of highly trained and certified technicians who are recompensed for their specialization. If not, the industry runs the risk of losing these talented individuals to the computer industry, which has leaped in pay and benefits well beyond the aviation industry. An average-level information technology worker makes more than the highest-paid avionics technicians. That is a difficult perspective to overcome when the skill sets are similar.
The true challenge for the future of avionics lies with regulatory authorities. They tend to react to change slowly with outdated and obsolete regulations. The regulators of tomorrow are faced with the fact that technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and specialized technicians are needed beyond the simple mechanical or electrical knowledge required in the past. There needs to be collaboration between regulatory authorities and the end users with a focus on ensuring the regulations accurately represent the needs of modern aviation.
For aircraft service businesses that operate on thin margins already, the challenge of offsetting higher wages required to entice and retail qualified avionics technicians will be a delicate balance.