The tentative recovery in the turbine rotorcraft market achieved modest momentum in 2022, fueled mainly by rising demand in the civil and para-public market, and more specifically the private and business aviation sectors, according to the latest market analysis released on Thursday by Airbus Helicopters. Overall, helicopter orders grew by only 2 percent last year to reach 1,082 units, but the European group is now projecting that more than 16,200 new helicopters will be delivered over the next 20 years with a combined value of €120 billion.
Announcing 2022 financial results for the Airbus group on February 16, its rotorcraft division reported a 19 percent increase in earnings to €639 million ($684 million) on revenues that were 8 percent up at €7.1 billion. The company said these improvements reflected growth in income from services and “a favorable mix” in the performance of its various programs.
While the number of net orders booked in 2022 was down 13 percent from 2021 at 362 units, the value of these orders was up 9 percent at €9.3 billion. The value of its 757-unit order backlog has improved by 16 percent to €20.1 billion.
Almost three-quarters of new demand anticipated over the next 20 years will be driven by the replacement of existing aircraft, with just 26 percent attributed to growth. Airbus Helicopters head of marketing David Prevor told reporters in a briefing this week that this marks a reversal in past trends that have shown global fleet growth to be a stronger driver of sales.
Airbus attributes this trend to abnormal oversupply resulting from operators retaining underutilized aircraft during the Covid pandemic. The market recovery in 2022 was constrained by economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures, largely driven by factors such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that put aircraft buying plans on hold across several sectors.
The final quarter of last year saw a softening in demand that undermined what might otherwise have been a more robust recovery. The energy sector is one of the areas that has seen under-investment in new equipment with only 16 aircraft delivered in 2022, a trend that Airbus now hopes will start to be reversed based on an uptick in demand for offshore transportation.
The manufacturer’s 20-year forecast sees single-engine helicopters accounting for 51 percent of new sales (but just 18 percent of the total value of transactions). Light twins will represent 23 percent of orders (25 percent of value), followed by medium-sized and super medium/heavy machines each at 13 percent of sales (and respectively, 25 and 32 percent in value terms). The light twin class is expected to enjoy the fastest growth rate at 22 percent.
According to Airbus, 55 percent of the 2022 global helicopter fleet will remain in service through 2042. Over the 20-year period covered by the forecast, the company anticipates the total number of aircraft increasing by 16 percent.
In geographical terms, the strongest fleet growth is expected in the Asia Pacific region (33 percent), followed by Africa and the Middle East (31 percent) and Latin America (18 percent). By comparison, the North American and European markets are now seen as far more mature, although they are the only regions that have already seen activity returning to pre-pandemic levels.
“During the pandemic, the fleet of in-service helicopters never decreased,” Prevor explained. “Operators kept their helicopters but reduced flight hours to the extent that productivity was 10 percent lower than before the aircraft, resulting in over-supply.”
Last year saw an overall 7 percent increase in civil and parapublic flight time per helicopter compared with 2021 levels. This turnaround was led by the commercial air transport sector with an 18 percent uptick and the oil and gas sector with a 12 percent increase. Total global feet flight time was up by 10 percent last year, with the strongest recovery rates seen in Latin America (27 percent), Asia/Australia (21 percent), and Africa/Middle East (20 percent).
In another indicator of the market correction, Airbus reported that in 2022 there were 748 preowned helicopters on the market. This represented a 40 percent decrease over 2020 when 1.327 units were offered for sale.