Sometimes change—especially sky-is-falling events—can be overwhelming. History can remind us of a few of these, including the 2001 dot-com bubble burst, the Great Recession in 2008, and the 2015 unspoken recession due to the oil price collapse and other global economic factors.
Some dramatic change, of course, is good, and this year will go down as the one when the industry's balance shifted. That shift should bring harmony, reality, normalization, and growth to us all.
Starting in March 2020, we all got caught off guard by the pandemic. Ultimately, the business aircraft market grew with an unprecedented surge of first-time buyers entering the fray. Huge numbers of entrants brought demand that stretched all segments of the business aviation industry. The search for hangar space was frenzied, pilot training slots had lead times never seen before, and maintenance pre-buy and modernization slots were all but gone.
And let’s not forget the dwindling preowned business aircraft inventory. Prices skyrocketed. Supply-chain issues caused us all to wring our hands and shake our heads. What a mess. Charter demand went through the roof, and it became next to impossible for some providers to deliver good service.
So, with this rebalancing in 2023, there will be some bystanders who will not survive, consolidation of some providers, and adjustments from operators and customers. But we are a strong industry that was built to withstand many adversities—even when they occur all at once.
In fact, there are so many positive events taking place that it's clear our industry will not only survive but thrive. For example, more owners are proactively looking at fleet shifts and transitions, which is allowing new inventory to come to market; more preowned inventory allows for more choices for buyers; and more choices will allow for easing in prices.
All this will make more prospects feel safer about entering the world of aircraft ownership. Do not get me wrong, I am not considering this price easing to disrupt the value calculation of aircraft—it will simply ease the frenzy.
This easing will also allow sellers to be more cognizant of the expectation of the buyer and, therefore, play a nicer sandbox game. Also, the natural result of greater inventory is longer days on the market. This should not scare sellers, just create a more natural process. This more natural process levels the playing field and puts the balance back in our steps.
So, welcome to a time of change that is finally created by all the right events. No catastrophic occurrences will stop dead in the tracks the industry and players that have for so many years come to welcome and enjoy the act of buying, selling, operating, and reselling the equipment that flies us safely and efficiently around the world. Enjoy!
Jay Mesinger is the CEO and founder of Mesinger Jet Sales, an international aircraft brokerage firm. With 49 years of successfully buying and selling aircraft, Mesinger Jet Sales has a global reputation for personalized, transparent service.
The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and are not necessarily endorsed by AIN Media Group.