Aircraft operators are being advised to avoid the airspace over Armenia and Azerbaijan as concerns rise over the possibiity of war breaking out again between the countries, which border Europe and Asia. Over the past week, the former Soviet Union states have accused each other of escalating troop buildups along their shared border despite efforts to agree about aid shipments to be sent to Armenians living in Azerbaijan.
Aviation security consultant Dyami Strategic Security Services has warned its clients to avoid the area, with founder and CEO Eric Schouten expressing concern that operators may not yet be taking the overflight risk seriously enough. “This is a truly dangerous emerging hotspot,” he told AIN.
The airspace over Armenia and Azerbaijan offers a small corridor between two powerful and unstable states, namely Russia and Iran. Nearby Turkey also has been identified as a player in the Caucasus regional conflict in the context of Azerbaijan’s apparent intention to seize territory in Christian-majority Armenia to create a land connection to its Muslim ally.
The mounting tensions have prompted concerns that aircraft operators may be reluctant to fly even longer, fuel-burning detours to avoid the area altogether on intercontinental flights. Flights are already advised to steer clear of the nearby warzone along the border between Ukraine and Russia.
Air-to-air Missile May Have Killed Putin's Enemy
Perhaps by way of emphasizing the security and safety risks, Schouten, a former Dutch intelligence officer, said his team has now concluded that an air-to-air missile likely caused the August 23 crash of the Embraer Legacy 600 aircraft that killed Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and others from the Wagner Group. The Putin administration has denied suggestions that it was responsible for the killing of Prigozhin, who had recently launched a coup attempt after withdrawing his forces from the frontlines of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s Interstate Aviation Committee has been instructed not to investigate the alleged accident, as would normally be the case under ICAO protocols. Instead, the Investigative Committee of Russia has begun what has been characterized as a criminal investigation.
According to Dyami, an onboard bomb could not have destroyed the Legacy because large sections of the pressurized aircraft’s hull were seen intact among the wreckage of the crash site between Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Schouten said that multiple classified sensors monitoring the area would have detected a surface-to-air missile launch. He said his team’s working theory is that an air-to-air missile impacted the airframe near one of the engines, forcing the aircraft into a roll with one side of the wing being ripped off by g-forces.
Meanwhile, down in the Caucasus region, Azerbaijani tanks and armored vehicles have been logged moving closer to the border with Armenia. The government in Baku has taken to referring to Armenia as “West Azerbaijan” and has adorned its military vehicles with an inverted “A” logo, reminiscent of the “Z” logo seen on Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine. On September 11, Azeri officials did agree with Armenian separatists to allow access to the so-called Lachin border corridor, raising some hope that tensions might be easing despite unsubstantiated reports of artillery fire in the area.
Osprey Flight Solutions has also issued a security warning designating both the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and the Nagorno-Karabakh region as "high untreated risk airspace at all altitudes. This is the security group's second-highest risk assessment rating on a five-tier scale.
According to Osprey chief intelligence officer and head of analysis Mark Brace, the airspace over Nagorno-Karabakh itself has no traffic routes and there are no operational civil airports on the ground there. Nonetheless, the company remains concerned about the safety of air traffic along the borders between the countries and expanded its risk area in the wake of ceasefire violations escalating since May. It told AIN it uses both AI and human analysis to assess a list of indications for both escalation and de-escalation.
As a preventative measure, Dyami is advising operators to use routes via Georgia and waypoints DISKA and ADEKI. The company indicated that even though the BARDA waypoint is not on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border it should be avoided.
On September 14, the company described the prospect of a full-scale conflict between the two countries as "very high."