The International Aircraft Dealers Association (IADA) has released its third quarter 2023 market report, pointing toward an expansive future for the business aviation marketplace. The report combines sales data with insights from IADA’s global member base.
According to IADA executive director Wayne Starling, there are notable improvements industrywide. “The good news is that inventories are expanding, price inflation has slowed if not slightly slipped, and supply chain quirks and bottlenecks are being ironed out industrywide,” he said. “Additionally, MROs and FBOs are expanding to meet the needs of aging fleets. Those factors coupled with massive new options from fleet buyers could be signals that supply and demand are rebalancing for a larger post-pandemic marketplace.”
Despite these positives, the preowned business aircraft market indicates some shifts in post-pandemic adjustments. A slight drop in the present assessment of the aircraft sales market has been observed in the last quarter. The contributing factors, as highlighted by IADA survey participants, include rising interest rates, marginally reduced pricing, and growing concerns regarding a potential U.S. economic recession.
"I think just with what we see globally economically, heading into a presidential [election] year, I think there is a feeling that we could see a continued slowdown in the marketplace, but I would say that activity levels from all the dealers that I talk to still seems to be robust and pretty active heading into the fourth quarter," newly-installed IADA vice chair and Wheels Up senior v-p for whole aircraft John Odegard told AIN. "You've got OEM backlogs that are strong, you've still got tax incentives, you've got people who sat on the fence because of the craziness of the last couple of years and did not want to jump in and overpay for airplanes, and now that things have normalized a little bit more, you are seeing some of that demand coming back into the market so I think it's pretty well balanced."
Business aircraft valuations have shown consistency. Newer, high-pedigree models have experienced price reductions between 5 to 10 percent off their peak values. In contrast, older aircraft have seen a steeper drop in value, around 15 to 20 percent, over recent years.
"If you look over the course of the last year, a year ago Q3 was the pinnacle of unsustainable pricing," explained Phillip Winters, v-p of aircraft sales and charter management with Western Aircraft, and incoming IADA chair. "What we've seen is this price correction. Sellers were putting airplanes on market at [prices] that were achievable not that long ago, but not anymore."
Aircraft utilization rates remain close to the third quarter 2022 statistics, significantly outpacing 2019.
A total of 309 used aircraft were sold in the third quarter, with 257 under contract. Out of these, 66 aircraft were sold below their asking prices and 44 deals were not finalized. IADA dealers concluded 853 transactions by September 2023, a decline from 929 in the same timeframe in 2022. While 410 new acquisition agreements were signed this year, the figure stood at 519 in the first nine months of 2022. Aircraft sold at reduced prices rose sharply to 191 from 59 last year.
IADA's member surveys suggest slight price drops, with a modest uptick in supply across all categories. Demand is forecasted to remain constant for turboprops and light jets, with a minor downturn for midsize and larger jets.
IADA-verified products and services members offered comments on current market conditions. Rolland Vincent of Rolland Vincent Associates remarked, “Buyers will be anticipating low prices, but sellers who bought at a premium in the past three-plus years will be hesitant to take a loss in the exchange.”
Odegard added, “While Q4 is likely to be fairly robust, I believe overall the next 6 months will see a continued slow increase in supply with a corresponding slow decrease in pricing."