Following a year of declining fuel sales, the FBO industry is poised for a rather flat year in 2024, according to the Aviation Business Strategies Group’s (ABSG) annual fuel sales survey and industry forecast, released today at the opening of NBAA’s Schedulers and Dispatchers Conference in Fort Worth, Texas.
Company principals John Enticknap and Ron Jackson said 41 percent of this year’s survey respondents reported a decrease in fuel sales during 2023 compared to 2022, which they described as “an unusually high number.” That is 12 percentage points higher than the proportion of survey respondents who reported declining sales between 2021 and 2022.
“After FBO fuel sales recovered in 2021 to pre-pandemic levels, we have seen a gradual softening across the market spectrum over the past two years,” said Enticknap. “This downward trend seems to indicate that the general aviation market is testing a lower annual fuel volume level as jet-A fuel prices remain mostly elevated.”
The report noted that petroleum prices have been hovering between $70 and $80 per barrel, which has caused jet-A costs to rise above pre-pandemic levels. While geopolitical issues can cause moderate-to-large disruptions in the global petroleum market, ABSG expects oil prices to ease somewhat ahead of the U.S. elections this fall.
Looking ahead to this year, 41 percent of survey takers predict their fuel sales volume will be flat in 2024, with another 30 percent anticipating a moderate increase of up to 4 percent, while 14 percent predicted a decline in their fuel volume.
A standard feature of ABSG’s survey measures confidence in the economy—and this year’s results showed pessimism, with more than half of the respondents indicating they believe the economy is headed in the wrong direction, versus just 20 percent that viewed it positively.
ABSG also asked its audience to list top concerns for the industry. Among them was the high cost of building new hangars. Nearly half of this year’s respondents said they were not planning on adding any new hangar space, while 29 percent indicated they intend to add box or storage hangars.
While many FBOs—particularly those in major markets—are at near or full capacity, construction costs have increased by approximately 30 percent in the wake of the pandemic. This increase is tied to inflation, which has impacted many phases of the industry, including labor, goods, services, insurance, and infrastructure upkeep, as well as increased airport operating fees and more restrictive regulatory oversight.
Another concern service providers face is the potential cost of switching to unleaded aviation gasoline, which many fear will price the average piston aircraft owner out of the industry.
Rounding out the list of issues are the costs of ground service equipment repair and replacement, along with attracting, training, and retaining qualified employees.