JetNet iQ: Bizjet Deliveries, Backlog Remain Strong but Uncertainties Prevail

With OEM backlogs stabilized at $53 billion at the end of the first quarter, business jet deliveries are expected to reach 820 in 2025, marking an 8% year-over-year (YOY) improvement, according to Rolland Vincent, president of Rolland Vincent Associates and creator/director of JetNet iQ. At the same time, however, a JetNet iQ survey in the second quarter revealed growing pessimism among operators, as well as an uptick in the potential for order cancellations or deferrals.

OEM order backlogs at the end of the first quarter were collectively down 1% from the end of 2024, but still almost 60% above the $33.3 billion pre-pandemic combined backlog at the end of 2019. The current tally is also a sharp rebound from the $27.3 billion low point at the height of the pandemic in 2020.

During the climb that began shortly after the 2020 drop, book-to-bills rocketed well above the balanced 1:1 ratio for all the major business jet OEMs, with Embraer well above the 2:1 mark. However, that has now settled back to near 1:1 for most of the OEMs, except Embraer. Gulfstream, which is ramping up on its flagship G700, and Bombardier, which faced uncertainty of tariffs in the second quarter and is increasing its top-of-the-line Global deliveries, both fell slightly short of 1:1.

The “big winners” of the major manufacturers in backlog, according to Vincent, have been the manufacturers in the light to super-midsize segments—Embraer and Textron Aviation, each of which has seen exponential growth in their backlogs from the 2010s.

As far as delivery estimates, Vincent told AIN that this number has increased a couple of percentage points from early this year as manufacturers have gained more visibility into their production lines.  “Those aircraft are sold. They have homes.” However, it may be a matter of whether the OEMs can get the engines given supply chain constraints.  “A lot of them are still saying they're building gliders. They're not getting the motors on time, Vincent said.

Also underpinning the strength of the market is strong growth in the preowned sector.  While preowned business jet transactions dipped by 4% and inventory was up by 10% YOY in 2024, those numbers appear to have turned in 2025, Vincent said, estimating that transactions were up by 35% or more.

However, the latest JetNet iQ survey also has shown a notable turnaround in industry optimism in the second quarter. The industry optimism has historically remained on the positive side and typically in double-digit percentages, according to JetNet iQ’s metrics, but over the last 11 quarters has crept down to closer to the 0 demarcation and notably has fallen into the negative in the second quarter.

Vincent surmised that economic uncertainties surrounding tariffs are likely driving that trend, and added that financial leaders recently noted they have seen a pulling back on research and development investment broadly in industry. Further, he said, the iQ survey tracks plans for cancellations and deferments. 

While still a very low number, those plans have doubled, something that Vincent said he’s not yet concerned about but is still watching. "An economic recession is what we're worried about," he said, and noted that orders for new business aircraft have ebbed in recent months.

But key to Vincent is the global reaction to the U.S. drive and international responses to tariffs. Overall, more than half of the respondents said the uncertainty of tariffs will delay their purchase plans.

In North America, that percentage falls to less than 44%, but is much higher in other parts of the global. In Europe, that number increases to 64.5%. This is notable given that European respondents overall were more optimistic than those in the U.S.

The JetNet iQ survey has been ongoing for 14 years, and Vincent noted drawn responses from some 28,000 people over that time.