GJC: Q1 Bizav Market Metrics Improve Despite Uncertainty

Nearly all metrics surrounding the business jet market strengthened in the first quarter, positioning the industry for a solid year despite the uncertain economic environment, according to financier Global Jet Capital (GJC). Releasing its latest Business Aviation Market Brief this week, GJC noted that flight activity, OEM backlogs, deliveries, and preowned transactions increased year over year (YOY) while inventories remained stable.

Flight operations were up 2.4% YOY, a result that GJC said reflects “an enduring expansion in the user base for business aviation.” North America led this growth, but operations outside the U.S. still increased despite prevalent geopolitical tensions. Fractionals continued to experience the most growth in operations.

Meanwhile, business jet backlogs were up 3.1%, to $47.9 billion, despite the headwinds that came from tariffs in March. GJC said there was some unevenness in backlog results. As manufacturers worked through supply chain and labor constraints, deliveries increased (dollar volume was up double digits) and are anticipated at higher YOY levels in 2025. With increased deliveries and market uncertainties, however, book-to-bill dipped below 1:1 in the quarter.

Transactions increased 25.9%, with dollar volume up 21.8%, as preowned jet market momentum carried over from 2024. Aircraft inventory increased to 7.2% of the fleet (from 7.1% a year ago) but was down from the end of 2024, with strong transaction volumes. GJC did see depreciation across most models, but said this was in line with historical norms, and younger aircraft values slid less than that of older aircraft.

GJC cautioned: “The outlook for the balance of 2025 hinges largely on the outcome of evolving U.S. tariff policies. If all announced tariffs take effect, economists project that U.S. inflation will rise and GDP growth will slow.”

The situation remains fluid with some tariffs already in effect and others dependent on negotiations, GJC said, concluding, “Regardless of the outcome, healthy conditions from 2024 and early 2025 position the business jet market to remain resilient through the balance of the year.”