Cautious Optimism Sets Hopeful Tone at CJI Miami 2025

Opening briefs yesterday at CJI Miami 2025 examined how business aviation is evolving after several years of strong demand and investment activity, particularly following changes brought by Covid. Speakers and panelists expressed cautious optimism about where the market stands and what could influence its future growth.

Shawn Vick of AE Industrial Partners painted a picture of a market that remains active but more stable than in recent years, with manufacturers, operators, and service providers adapting to normalized business aircraft utilization levels and steady backlogs. Vick noted that fractional ownership and charter programs continue to support aircraft use and broaden access to private travel for those seeking alternatives to full ownership.

He said previous “downturns, economic upturns, rapid growth” have all tested the sector, but the Covid era proved unique. “I am much more a believer that it’s acted more as an accelerant on the acceptance of these assets,” he noted, explaining that travelers had already recognized the productivity, privacy, and efficiency benefits of business aviation and that the pandemic simply accelerated that shift.

While only a fraction of those who can afford to fly privately use the service regularly, he added, growth depends on matching customers’ need for access to these assets with the right ownership or charter model.

Don Spieth of VanGas Aviation Analytics observed that the cost challenges posed by fractional models may require innovation. “The only thing that I can tell you is the revenue model of the past may not be the revenue model that you see for, you know, fractional owners going forward,” he said, and pointed out that engine manufacturers have shown resourcefulness in the face of similar challenges.

“There’s more offerings,” he said. “There’s different offerings because of the challenges that they’ve encountered over time.”

Despite economic pressures facing fractional models, “There’s clearly a desire by lots of people to fly private,” George Ferguson of Bloomberg Intelligence noted. “They can’t afford a whole airplane and don’t want to go to charters. They want more availability…The demand is there. It’s not going away.”

James Palen of Jefferies Aviation & Aerospace Investment Banking & Capital Markets put capital flows and financing structures under the microscope, saying investor activity remains strong, reflecting confidence in business aviation’s long-term fundamentals. He noted that investors are increasingly focused on consistent revenue generation and operational data when evaluating opportunities, indicating a more analytical approach to capital deployment.

Palen traced how large institutional investors have moved steadily into private aviation. He compared the trend to “a massive influx of institutional, large-ticket capital coming into commercial aviation” in the late 1990s and early 2000s, noting that a similar wave has unfolded in business aviation over the past five years.

He described a broader range of participants—sovereign wealth and public-style investors, private equity, and hybrid funds—that are targeting operators, management firms, MROs, and FBOs. Much of the appeal, he said, lies in scale, predictable cash flow, and clear exit potential as earlier private-equity investments near maturity.

Palen added that capital inflows have been accelerated since Covid by mergers, roll-ups, and infrastructure-style investors “beginning to look at what we call core or core plus type assets.” These include FBO networks, which combine stability with growth potential.