Jefferies: Broker Sentiment Bounces on Bonus Depreciation

Business jet brokers have a more optimistic outlook as permanent bonus depreciation takes root, according to market analyst Jefferies. Releasing its 20th semi-annual business jet survey this week, Jefferies noted that the sentiment index, which included responses from 80 business jet brokers globally, increased by 14% to seven on a 10-point scale. This compares with 6.1 in June but is off from the all-time high of 8.7 in January 2022, when demand from the market experienced an unprecedented surge.

Brokers believe volume in 2026 will tick up by about 5%, an improvement from the flat results that were anticipated in the June survey. Jefferies expects a 3% bounce on new business jet deliveries, looking at new models from Gulfstream, Textron Aviation, and Dassault.

More than half of the respondents—57%—cited 100% depreciation benefits as a key driver of the market. The so-called bonus depreciation took effect last year after Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill. Also, 20% pointed to long lead times for new jets in propelling the underlying strength of the used market.

Further, brokers are no longer citing geopolitical risks as a market driver, where 27% noted those concerns in the June survey. However, now brokers (44%) are worried about the possible economic slowdowns in key markets, as well as long lead times and supply-chain issues (22%). High-net-worth individuals are anticipated to lead the market this year, with the entertainment sector and government demand coming in weaker.

In December, 1,124 aircraft were available for sale, representing 4.4% of the total fleet. This is down 11% year over year and 5% from June. Jefferies added that some 60% of sales represent replacement aircraft.

Sentiment surrounding the Gulfstream G700/G800 remained strong at 73%, down just slightly from 77% in June, as deliveries are picking up. Respondents ranked these models highest in popularity, followed by the Bombardier Global 8000. However, sentiment for these models was neutral when comparing the G700/G800 with the Global 7500/8000 and Dassault Falcon 10X. Sentiment was weaker on the G300 and G400 as the G400 has encountered delays.

The Embraer Praetor 600 received praise for its new technologies, but brokers cited concerns around range, operational support, and lead times. The Bombardier Challenger 3500 received praise for reliability and range, along with concerns around model family age. Pricing was a concern surrounding the Cessna Citation Longitude versus the Praetor and Challenger.

Gulfstream is the most in-demand OEM, according to Jefferies, citing survey responses, followed by Embraer, Bombardier, and Cessna Citation.

Price discounting has softened with the average falling to 6.1%, compared with 7.3% in June. Respondents found pricing weakness with the Cessna Citation but price strength with the G700.