AINsight: Fuel Crisis Could Be Tough Test for Bizav

Europe’s business aviation community likely never thought it would have to contemplate more existential threats than luxury taxes and decarbonization mandates. And then the Iran war’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised the all-too-real prospect of flights being grounded for lack of their lifeblood—jet fuel.

According to no lesser an authority than the International Energy Agency executive director, Fatih Birol, Europe could face chronic fuel shortages by the end of May. In the meantime, the price of jet-A has more than doubled in the region since the conflict started on February 28, driving up operating costs to levels that seem to challenge the limits of economic sustainability.

IATA’s latest (April 24) fuel price tracker shows the average weekly price of jet-A as $4.46 per gallon in Europe, with only Africa showing higher prices ($4.49). At that point, the Brent barrel price of crude oil was at just under $110, but this week it is hovering around $124.

At Aero Friedrichshafen in Germany last week, charter operators and industry leaders tried to put on a brave face, insisting that the resilience that has seen them through plagues and previous conflicts will prevail in this crisis. But during conference panel sessions I moderated involving leading European operators and leaders of national associations, there was an acknowledgement that sourcing fuel is likely to get harder as the critical summer charter season gets underway and that rising costs could eventually dent demand.

So, are the duelling Iranian and U.S. blockades of the Strait of Hormuz about to achieve what eco-warrior Greta Thunberg could only dream of: shutting down private aviation in Europe, as well as in regions such as Asia? Frontline experts in the aviation charter and fuel supply sector think not, predicting that while gaps in supply could prove patchy, operators and their service providers will find workarounds to keep aircraft airborne.

Speaking with AIN on April 23, Daniel Coetzer, CEO of Switzerland-based Titan Aviation Fuels, said the fuel supply situation in Europe could start “getting hard” from around the second week of May and be “really serious” by June. The company has multiple sources of fuel and specializes in supporting business aircraft operators needing operational flexibility.

Fuel Uplift Caps

Air bp recently issued notices informing operators that fuel uplifts for short-haul flights at four Italian airports are being capped, with government and medical operations receiving priority. Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell—one of many energy companies now cashing in from vastly increased prices—has acknowledged that both Europe and Asia are vulnerable to fuel shortages and that it is working with governments on measures to manage fuel storage and procurement.

Risk management specialist Dyami Security has urged aircraft operators to focus more intently on how they will deal with the fallout from the Strait of Hormuz staying largely closed indefinitely—as would appear to be the case based on stalled peace talks. In a recent bulletin, it concluded that “current mitigation measures are buying time, but none of them closes the gap.”

Kevin Ducksbury, chairman of the Air Charter Association (ACA) told AIN that some of the focus on fuel shortages amounts to scaremongering. He said the problem is more acute in some Asian and African countries than it is in Europe, adding that most of the group’s members feel they could “ride out” the situation for anywhere between two to six months.

“The bigger issue is price, and this could have an impact on air charter because operators can’t swallow all the additional cost,” Ducksbury explained. In some cases, operators are already applying fuel surcharge clauses in their contracts with those booking flights. At the same time, there are reports of fuel suppliers requiring payment on fuel uplift rather than allowing credit.

Business aviation leaders told AIN they are concerned that the industry could find itself at a disadvantage of enhanced government measures to manage the crisis, perhaps in the form of fuel rationing. Based on existing policy, European governments are highly likely to put the needs of airlines above those of private aviation.

Rationing Could Come Next

Multiple airlines have anticipated the imminence of rationing by cancelling thousands of flights over the coming weeks. But business aviation has no schedules to cancel; it is by its very nature an on-demand service that bows to no schedule and which could potentially plug gaps that airline service cannot fill.

However, given the choice between grounding narrowbody airliners carrying middle-class voters on their annual vacation to the Mediterranean and throwing high-net-worth individuals under the fuel rationing bus, few have any doubts as to how the vote will be cast. Meanwhile, not a luxury villa on France’s Côte d’Azur is available as well-healed visitors from the Gulf and elsewhere have shifted vacation plans to take a break from the conflict. Ordinarily, that would mean local airports being packed with chartered jets.

Business aviation lobbyists, including ACA and EBAA, have called on the European Commission to suspend anti-tankering rules that require operators to buy the majority of fuel at European Union airports. They also want other aspects of the RefuelEU carbon reduction requirements put on hold as operators, including airlines, struggle to deal with the fallout from the war. So far, the Commission has given no indication that it will make these concessions.

Some of the discussions I had with industry leaders at Aero Friedrichshafen last week seemed more than a little surreal. Our frequently rehearsed debates over grievances about existing European regulations started to seem somewhat beyond the point as the harsh reality of wartime market conditions sank in. It has to be said that there was a marked difference in the level of optimism expressed by industry executives speaking on the record compared with what they said on a not-for-attribution basis.