European Bizav Already Weak—And Then Came War

Focusing on the bright side, the European business aviation industry might take comfort from the fact that Extinction Rebellion and other environmental direct-action lobbyists seem to have lost their appetite for invading airports to damage business jets. That was very much in vogue two or three years ago, and cynics might now conclude that Europe’s governments are doing the work of Greta Thunberg and her fellow eco-warriors with their efforts to stifle the sector through allegedly discriminatory taxes and measures such as its ReFuelEU sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates.

The escalating impact of the Iran War—now in its ninth week—has significantly exacerbated the pressure on business aviation. On top of severe operational restrictions in the Middle East itself, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening to curtail jet A supplies, and has caused a severe spike in fuel prices and operating costs.

Politics apart, it is easy to be underwhelmed by business aviation’s progress in Europe, with Richard Koe, managing director of data specialist WingX Advance, recently describing the sector’s compound annual growth rate of 2% as “quite frankly miserable.” 

There have been some bright spots of growth over the years, such as in the late 1970s before the second energy crisis, when the industry grew by 11%; followed by the pre-millennium dot-com boom (24%); and before the financial crisis in the late 2000s (17%). Compared with activity levels in February 2025, growth has been meager at 1%.

Traffic levels tracked by the European Business Aviation Association (EBAA), with data from JetNet subsidiary WingX and Eurocontrol, paint a similar picture. With peaks of almost 790,000 movements in 2007 and 800,000 in the post-Covid euphoria of 2022, European activity barely got above 750,000 movements in 2025, which represented a 1% increase over 2024.

EBAA’s most recently confirmed traffic data runs through the end of February, just as the Iran war broke out. Factoring in arrivals and departures at airports in the 44 member states of the European Civil Aviation Conference, these figures showed overall growth of 1.5% in the 12 months since the start of March 2025.

Predictably, the summer months spanning June through September once again showed elevated activity levels. Some charter brokers have told AIN they are already anticipating above-average bookings this summer as private travelers gravitate toward locations in Western Europe to avoid disruption and risk in the Gulf states. The villa rental market in Mediterranean resorts is reportedly very hot.

Tracking European flights in January and February, there are some significant variations between countries. In France, the UK, and the Netherlands, where taxes on charter flights are already in effect or threatened, year-to-date movements were down by up to 5%. By contrast, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Finland recorded increases of between around 7% and 24%.

Breaking down year-to-date traffic by business jet manufacturers reveals growth for Gulfstream (12%), Bombardier’s Global and Challenger families (10%), Embraer (5%), and Pilatus (16%). Cessna Citation, Dassault Falcon, Hawker, HondaJet, and Bombardier’s Learjet types all saw dipping levels of activity in the first two months of this year. Flight totals ebbed for all the main turboprop brands, including Piper, Piaggio Aero, Cessna, Pilatus, Beechcraft, and Daher.

Uncertainty for Charter Brokers and Operators 

The consensus among experienced business aviation professionals interviewed by AIN in March for this report is that it is hard to assess what 2026 will amount to in Europe. “It feels too early to tell,” commented Julie Black, head of business aviation with charter broker Hunt & Palmer, almost three weeks into the Iran war. “Fractional ownership has been strong, but charter is generally doing less well. If something doesn’t change, there could be a loss of confidence in travel and impacts such as fuel surcharges.”

At Malta-based aircraft management and charter group Skyfirst, company CEO and founder Olivier Perdriel shared the sense that uncertain market forces have been triggered by the Iran war. “The industry mood is neither optimistic nor pessimistic; it is more that we are in shock and do not know what is going on,” he told AIN.

According to Perdriel, European operators are hoping the conflict and its economic fallout will come to an end in time to avoid denting the usually lucrative summer season. He said demand slowed from around the end of 2025 as investment decisions stalled over economic uncertainty caused by Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and U.S. tariffs.

“But they [charter customers and aircraft owners] are not going to change their way of living,” Perdriel commented. He indicated that leisure-driven trips might be less impacted than those purely associated with business, while also pointing out the high degree of crossover between these two purposes in the private flight market.

Higher Prices in Europe

Charter marketplace Avinode’s rolling 28-day pricing index through late 2025 showed flight-hour charter rates as being consistently higher for trips in Europe compared with the U.S. The difference likely reflects higher operating costs in Europe and also the significance of seasonal demand fluctuations.

According to Harry Clarke, the Sweden--based group’s director of commercial development, in the post-Covid cost environment, it is even more important for charter flight providers to have market intelligence to understand when they can raise prices. “Our customers are seeing more purpose in using the search comparison tool, because it makes even more sense to do that in peakier markets,” he told AIN, referring to Europe’s more entrenched seasonal demand patterns.

Avinode’s platform has a feature that allows operators, when they receive a flight request, to run a comparison search to see what brokers saw when they initiated the search among multiple potential trip providers. Around 40% of European operators are using this function, which is almost four times the rate in the North American market and twice that of the Middle East.

The dislocation caused by the Iran war has also illustrated the importance of real-time market intelligence; charter providers scrambled to respond to the urgent need to evacuate people from Gulf states under fire from missiles and drones. Clarke said there has been a shift in demand for flights to destinations at the western end of the Mediterranean Sea, but that at the same time, searches for trips more than a month ahead of departure appeared to be dropping, perhaps in the context of economic uncertainty.

Avinode has noticed more operators gravitating toward a floating fleet model in an attempt to be better placed to pick up empty leg bookings. “The challenge is to find where the charter opportunities are and to navigate these while dealing with rising fuel costs,” Clarke concluded. “It is more important than ever to be able to find these solutions.”