Jefferies: Bizjet Brokers Increasingly Upbeat on Market

Optimism is increasing among business jet brokers as available inventories tighten up, according to analyst Jefferies. Releasing results of its 21st semi-annual business jet survey, which drew responses from 80 brokers globally, Jefferies said its sentiment index edged up to 7.2 on a 10-point scale. This is up from 7.0 in January but is shy of the 8.7 mark in January 2022 during an overheated market.

In the survey, 27% of brokers cited shrinking available business jet inventories as a signal of robust demand. In June, 1,029 aircraft were available for sale, representing 4% of the total fleet. This is below the 4.4% one-year average and down 11% year over year.

Further, 25% pointed to long lead times for new jets as bolstering the used market. Jefferies is forecasting that new aircraft deliveries will be up by 2% this year on the strength of the newer jet introductions. The survey also revealed that 57% believe the return of bonus depreciation is a primary driver.

However, there is some concern of an economic slowdown at key end markets (44% pointed to this), and another 26% cited Middle East unrest as a risk. Meanwhile, brokers expect high-net-worth individuals to lead the market in 2026, with entertainment and government activity weaker.

As far as sentiment by models, brokers are upbeat about the Gulfstream G700/G800 (89% positive versus 73% in January) as deliveries increase, but not as much about the G300/G400. Sentiment for G300 and G400 came in at 11% and 31%, respectively, with pricing cited for the G400 and limited innovation when comparing the G300 to the G280.

Brokers also pointed out the higher pricing for the Textron Aviation Citation Longitude at $30 million, versus the Embraer Praetor 600 ($23 million) and Bombardier Challenger 3500 ($27 million). While the Praetor 600 drew praise for its new technologies, concerns were raised about long lead times and support. The Challenger 3500 was praised for reliability and range, but concerns were expressed about model family age and lead times.

Survey takers selected the G800 as the most popular model, followed by the Global 8000. But they were primarily neutral when comparing the Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault Falcon ultra-long-range models.

Overall, Gulfstream claimed the top spot as the most in-demand OEM (64% selecting, up from 50% in January), followed by Bombardier (12%), Embraer (12%), and Cessna (10%). Survey takers find that the Gulfstream G800 has the most price strength.