Valour Study Predicts 6,824 eVTOLs In Operation By 2050

In its new report ‘The Future of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) – 2026,’ London-based Valour Consultancy has predicted that the in-service fleet of passenger-carrying eVTOLs will reach 6,824 by 2050. While acknowledging that this overall figure is “much more modest in size than the wildly optimistic projections” from the early 2020s, the company said air taxis are nevertheless still on track to “largely complement – not replace – existing modes of transport such as helicopters and light jets.”

Between now and 2050, report author Craig Foster expects the majority of the world’s eVTOL fleet to be based in China. Nowhere else in the world, he argued, is already building vertiports at scale: something China is able to do with its “uniquely centralized, top-down approach” and “generous [government] subsidies supporting the development of its low-altitude economy.”

Alongside advancements in infrastructure, China is also currently the only nation to have certified a passenger-carrying eVTOL—EHang’s autonomous EH216-S. Foster said the support of regulators puts China “leagues ahead of any other country when it comes to passenger eVTOLs.”

Outside of mainland China, Foster believes eVTOL takeoff and landing sites will remain “heavily concentrated in megacities across much of the Western world.” These could include the vertiport already under construction in Dubai. However, despite many manufacturers’ intentions to ‘democratise’ eVTOL transport for all with per-mile costs equivalent to ground modes of transportation, Foster warns this will not initially be the case.

Costs Higher Than Forecast

“Landing fees are a significant component of cost per available seat mile and, together with hugely expensive and frequent battery replacements, likely high insurance costs and pilot salaries, the long-touted Uber Black pricing model looks like a distant prospect,” he suggested. As such, he expects initial users of eVTOL services will be those with “high disposable incomes.”

However, Valour sees regional air mobility as a more “compelling opportunity,” with many hybrid-electric designs – capable of conventional take-off and landing – facing less challenges to their entry into service. In total, the analysis suggests a global in-service AAM fleet could exceed some 19,500 aircraft “when regional air mobility, cargo and special missions are added to passenger eVTOLs.”

The fleet of uncrewed aircraft is also set to rise significantly, with Valour estimating that UAS numbers will exceed 5.6 million by 2050. However, a large portion of this growth will be dependent on favorable regulatory conditions, including provision for beyond visual line of sight operations. This, argues Valour, is key to unlocking scalable economics for delivery operations: allowing the global delivery drone fleet to exceed 500,000 by 2050.