The JetNet iQ Summit kicked off in New York City today with a focus on the future, including an opening panel that focused on the “likely evolution” of business aviation moderated by JetNet v-p of sales Paul Cardarelli.
Panelist Richard Koe of WingX was asked how the two “hot wars” currently being engaged in both the Middle East and Ukraine have affected the industry.
“The cyclical nature of our industry has been punctuated with the implications of events over the last 20 to 25 years,” he said, “whether it's been 9/11 fairly briefly, or whether it's from the global financial crisis, which obviously had a decade of stagnation in the industry. Recently, we clearly had the geopolitical consequences of the pandemic, which initially put us on the ground. We essentially lost 60% to 70% of our activity in a month or two.”
He said that while the war in Ukraine came at a time when the industry was doing better, the “indirect effects” of global instability have been felt. “Some of those aren't the immediate consequences of a conflict, but they are the kind of longer-term risks from such factors as the unraveling of globalization and the tensions between the U.S. and China.”
Panelist Kevin Michaels of AeroDynamic Advisory was asked what the business landscape of the industry looks like in an age of fewer aircraft flying more hours, to which he made a note of current post-Covid market trends.
“Departures are up 25% compared to 2019 and utilization is up 30%, so what does that mean?” he said. “If nothing else changes, MRO spending is up 30% as well. And if you take that microtrend, you combine that with the fact that aircraft OEMs are aggressively trying to expand their services business and their resilience, and it is an interesting combination. You see aircraft OEMs get between 30% to 40% of the revenue from the aftermarket services, and that adds to the resiliency of their business model.”
He cited the success of Bombardier as an example of a business that overcame doubts as a standalone business jet manufacturer.
Panelist and JetNet iQ managing director Rollie Vincent was posed with the question of how he’d personally double $1 billion in the industry. “I really like the idea of fixing training and optimizing,” he said, shrugging off the idea of investing directly in aerospace or in a new engine given the regulatory environment.
“I think with [artificial intelligence] the tools are there, but we can get to a point where we can get much smarter there,” he said in regard to optimization. “So I like that business model.”
The JetNet iQ Summit continues through Wednesday evening.