A study recently presented by Dutch researchers NACO/Royal HaskoningDHV and Royal NLR to the Netherlands’s House of Representatives concluded that the first nine-passenger electric aircraft could reach the short-haul AAM market by 2026, with the potential for larger 19-seaters to follow. The Netherlands has set a goal to fully electrify short-haul scheduled air services by 2050.
According to the study's authors, if policies remain unchanged, the share of global CO2 emissions from aviation could increase from 2 percent to more than 20 percent by 2050.
Commissioned by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, the study is the first to give integrated attention to the aviation ecosystem of stakeholders and all technical, logistical, energy, and financial aspects that play a role in electric aviation. For example, the study examined the availability of the devices and batteries, the layout and logistics at the airports, charging technology, renewable-energy facilities, and costs.
Challenges related to aircraft include developing batteries, certifying aircraft, and scaling production to meet demand. On the ground, difficulties include adapting the infrastructure, as well as developing legislation and regulations. Despite the challenges, the researchers support the conclusion that electrically powered aircraft, with a capacity of up to 19 passengers on routes up to 200 km (124 miles), could fully assume the role of traditional aviation.
The study used the flight schedule between Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao as an example of how to quantify the impact of the introduction of electric flying in terms of infrastructure, energy demand, and costs. The study provides insight into the investments and the operational costs involved in converting commercial air traffic between the three islands in three phases: first, to start small in 2026, and then reduce conventional air traffic (as measured in 2019) by 50 percent in 2030, and finally to go fully electric by 2035. With the knowledge gained from the study, the ministry believes it can map the possibilities in the Netherlands.